Overall Economy
Employment Growth Rate
Greater Victoria employment was 4.4% higher in 2008 than in 2007, the fourth consecutive year with growth of at least 3.5%. It was also the fourth straight year with faster employment growth than BC overall and placed the region first among Canada's 20 largest metropolitan areas.
Growth averaged 3.8% per year, representing about 6,400 jobs annually, from 2003 to 2008. This is a substantially faster growth rate than BC's 2.8% and Metro Vancouver's 2.4% and ranks 2nd only to Calgary among Canada's top 20 metro areas.
Growth in the number of employed in Greater Victoria is a fundamental goal of regional economic development.
The data is based on Statistics Canada's monthly Labour Force Survey so the results include some degree of sampling error. This may partly explain the large year-to-year variations in the 1990s.
|
Employment Growth Rates |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
Average Growth, 2003-2008 |
|
BC |
2.5% |
2.4% |
3.3% |
3.1% |
3.2% |
2.1% |
2.8% |
|
Greater Victoria |
1.9% |
2.1% |
4.5% |
3.5% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
3.8% |
|
Metro Vancouver |
2.9% |
4.5% |
2.5% |
2.7% |
3.0% |
1.5% |
2.4% |
|
Greater Victoria Employment (000s) |
158.7 |
162.0 |
169.3 |
175.2 |
182.9 |
190.9 |
6.4 |
|
Greater Victoria Rank among Canada's Top 20 Metro Areas |
14 |
9 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
| Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, annual average. | |||||||
Unemployment Rate
The regional unemployment rate in Greater Victoria has increased sharply through the latter half of 2008 and early 2009, rising from 3.1% in the second quarter of 2008 to 5.4% in the first quarter of 2009. This is consistent with the downturn in global financial markets and the decline in national economic output that began in the fourth quarter of the year.
The longer-term trend since the late 1990s has been for declining unemployment, due largely to strong economic conditions for much of the past decade. Greater Victoria's unemployment rate has been consistently lower than the provincial rate - not since 1995 has the regional unemployment rate been as high as the provincial rate.
Compared to the rest of Canada's 20 largest metropolitan areas, Greater Victoria had the lowest average unemployment rate for 2008, but the increase of 2.1 percentage points over the last year (from 2008's first quarter to 2009's first quarter) is only 12th smallest.
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labour force that is out of work. It is one of the most important economic indicators used worldwide to measure economic strength.
Note that the labour force is defined as the population age 15+ that is either employed or actively seeking employment. The unemployment rate is calculated monthly based on Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey.
|
Unemployment Rate |
2007 |
Q1-08 |
Q2-08 |
Q3-08 |
Q4-08 |
2008 |
Q1-09 |
Change Q1-08 |
|
BC |
4.2% |
4.3% |
4.5% |
4.6% |
5.3% |
4.6% |
6.7% |
2.4 pp |
|
Greater Victoria |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.1% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
5.4% |
2.1 pp |
|
Metro Vancouver |
4.0% |
3.8% |
4.2% |
4.3% |
4.8% |
4.3% |
6.1% |
2.3 pp |
|
Greater Victoria Rank among Canada's Top 20 Metro Areas (lowest ranked 1st) |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
12 |
| Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. Note that quarterly data is seasonally adjusted and is based on 3-month moving averages. | ||||||||
Employment Rate
Greater Victoria's employment rate increased for the seventh consecutive year in 2008. Exactly two-thirds of the region's adult population (age 15+) were employed in 2008, an increase of 2.1 percentage points (pp) over 2007. This is a much larger increase than either BC, which had no change, or Metro Vancouver, which declined by 0.5 pp. It was also the largest change of any of Canada's 20 largest metro areas.
Greater Victoria traditionally had a lower employment rate than the Metro Vancouver and provincial averages, due in part to its older population (people are less likely to work as they age). Since 2001, however, Greater Victoria's employment rate has increased by 7.3 percentage points and it moved ahead of both BC (in 2005) and Metro Vancouver (in 2007). This is the largest increase among Canada's top 20 metro areas in that time period.
The employment rate measures the percentage of the working-age population (age 15+) that is employed.
Unlike the unemployment rate, it includes people who choose not to participate in the labour force. It therefore provides a more complete measurement of the availability of employment opportunities for residents.
|
Employment Rate |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
Growth, 2003-2008 |
Growth, 2007-2008 |
|
BC |
60.3% |
60.9% |
61.8% |
62.5% |
63.5% |
63.5% |
3.2 pp |
0 pp |
|
Greater Victoria |
59.4% |
60.0% |
61.9% |
63.0% |
64.6% |
66.7% |
7.3 pp |
2.1 pp |
|
Metro Vancouver |
62.8% |
63.1% |
63.3% |
63.7% |
64.4% |
63.9% |
1.1 pp |
-0.5 pp |
|
Greater Victoria Rank among Canada's Top 20 Metro Areas |
20 |
19 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
| Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. Reported by BC Stats. | ||||||||
Inflation Rate
Consumer prices increased by an average of 1.8% in Greater Victoria in 2008, compared to a 1.2% inflation rate in 2007. Measured on a quarterly basis, which is more variable, prices were only 1.2% higher in December 2008 compared to December 2007. This is partly due to the current weak state of the economy as inflation tends to fall with declines in economic growth.
Since 1990 the regional inflation rate has tracked the provincial rate of inflation very closely, being higher in some years and lower in other years.
The inflation rate measures changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a basket of goods and services purchased by Canadian households.
Low and stable inflation is desirable because it allows both businesses and consumers to make prudent plans for future purchases and investments. It also benefits individuals living on fixed incomes.
The Bank of Canada's inflation target is 2% per year.
|
Inflation Rate |
2007 full-year |
Q1-08 |
Q2-08 |
Q3-08 |
Q4-08 |
2008 full-year |
|
BC |
1.8% |
1.2% |
3.0% |
3.3% |
1.2% |
2.1% |
|
Greater Victoria |
1.2% |
0.6% |
2.8% |
2.9% |
1.2% |
1.8% |
|
Metro Vancouver |
2.0% |
1.5% |
3.1% |
3.5% |
1.3% |
2.4% |
Growth in Estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Greater Victoria's estimated GDP has increased consistently throughout the 2000s, with the exception of 2001 when estimated growth was slightly negative. Growth in the most recent year available (2007) exceeded the BC rate for the third consecutive year.
Overall from 2002 to 2007, the region's economy expanded by an average of 3.5% per year, matching the provincial growth rate. In dollar terms, the production of the regional economy increased by an average of about $360 million per year (measured in constant 2002 dollars).
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of all goods and services produced in the domestic economy.
Estimated GDP for Victoria is derived from provincial GDP using 3-year average weighted employment shares. This assumes that productivity across the province within an industry is constant.
|
GDP Growth Rate (2002 dollars) |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Average Growth, 2002-2007 |
|
British Columbia |
3.2% |
2.6% |
3.8% |
4.1% |
4.2% |
2.7% |
3.5% |
|
Greater Victoria |
2.6% |
1.6% |
3.6% |
4.3% |
4.4% |
3.9% |
3.5% |
|
Greater Victoria GDP ($millions) |
$9,468 |
$9,616 |
$9,959 |
$10,391 |
$10,850 |
$11,272 |
$361 |
|
Greater Victoria GDP as % of BC |
7.5% |
7.4% |
7.4% |
7.4% |
7.4% |
7.5% |
|
| Source: BC Stats , Vann Struth Consulting Group estimates | |||||||