Labour Force

Labour Force Growth Rate

The size of the Greater Victoria labour force increased by 4.4% in 2008, the fourth consecutive year it grew faster than the provincial labour force. This is consistent with the region's faster growth in employment and rising labour force participation rates.

Labour force growth from 2003 to 2008 averaged 3.2% per year, nearly double the growth rate in Metro Vancouver. Only Calgary had faster labour force growth among Canada's 20 largest metropolitan areas. The average increase of 5,700 workers per year is slightly less than the average growth in employment of 6,400 jobs per year, which explains why the region's unemployment rate has been trending down.

Changes in the size of the labour force reflect population growth, as well as economic strength because a stronger economy causes more people to seek employment.

Labour Force Growth Rates	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	Average Growth, 2003-2008
BC	2.0%	1.4%	1.9%	1.8%	2.7%	2.5%	2.1%
Greater Victoria	1.0%	1.1%	3.6%	2.8%	3.9%	4.4%	3.2%
Metro Vancouver	2.4%	3.6%	1.4%	1.3%	2.6%	1.8%	1.7%
Greater Victoria Labour Force (000s)	169.1	171.0	177.1	182.0	189.1	197.5	5.7
Greater Victoria Rank among Canada's Top 20 Metro Areas	16	11	4	3	3	2	2
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, annual average. Reported by BC Stats.

Labour Market Entrants and Departures

Greater Victoria currently has a larger share of people approaching retirement (age 55-64) than entering the labour market (age 15-24). This gap is projected to increase until 2020, suggesting that the regional labour force will shrink over the next decade.

This trend is consistent with that in the province and Metro Vancouver and is related to the baby boom generation moving into retirement. Labour shortages in many key industries and occupations are likely to become more severe without significant changes in migration or the participation of older workers in the labour force.

The share of the population 15-24 is a proxy for potential labour market entrants while the share 55-64 is a proxy for labour market departures.

A gap between these shares means the labour force is either growing (if there are more entrants) or shrinking (if there are more departures).

	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
BC Population Age 15-24	13.3%	13.5%	13.0%	11.5%	10.4%	10.0%	10.3%	10.6%
Population Age 55-64	9.3%	11.6%	13.3%	14.0%	14.3%	13.5%	12.3%	12.1%
Gap	4.1%	2.0%	-0.3%	-2.5%	-3.9%	-3.5%	-2.0%	-1.5%
Greater Victoria Population Age 15-24	13.0%	13.3%	12.7%	10.9%	10.0%	9.9%	10.5%	10.8%
Population Age 55-64	9.4%	12.4%	14.5%	14.9%	14.7%	13.7%	12.9%	13.0%
Gap	3.6%	0.9%	-1.9%	-4.1%	-4.7%	-3.8%	-2.4%	-2.2%
Metro Vancouver Population Age 15-24	13.6%	13.9%	13.2%	11.7%	10.6%	10.1%	10.3%	10.5%
Population Age 55-64	8.7%	10.6%	12.2%	13.2%	14.0%	13.5%	12.4%	12.1%
Gap	5.0%	3.3%	1.0%	-1.5%	-3.4%	-3.4%	-2.1%	-1.6%
Source: Source: BC Statistics Population Estimates (for 2000, 2005) and Projections (2010 to 2035)

Labour Force Participation Rate

Greater Victoria's labour force participation rate increased by 2.2 percentage points in 2008, continuing a recent trend of increases that started in 2001. There are several possible explanations, including strength in the regional economy and demographic shifts, such as a more educated workforce, that are more likely to seek employment.

The region's participation rate is now above both the provincial and Metro Vancouver rates after being traditionally lower, due in part to the historically older age profile. As recently as 2003, Greater Victoria had the lowest participation rate among Canada's 20 largest metro areas, but the increase of 5.7 percentage points from 2003 to 2008 was the biggest increase in Canada. The region now ranks 11^th among the top 20.

Labour force participation rates measure the percentage of the working age population (age 15+) that are in the labour force, meaning they are either employed or actively seeking work.

Higher participation rates indicate a strong economy, but participation rates also reflect social factors (such as the inclusion of women and the elderly in the labour force) and demographics (because people are less likely to be in the labour force as they age).

Participation Rate	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	Change 07-08	Change 03-08
BC	65.6%	65.5%	65.6%	65.7%	66.3%	66.6%	0.3 pp	1.0 pp
Greater Victoria	63.3%	63.3%	64.8%	65.4%	66.8%	69.0%	2.2 pp	5.7 pp
Metro Vancouver	67.7%	67.6%	67.2%	66.7%	67.1%	66.7%	-0.4 pp	-1.0 pp
Greater Victoria Rank among Canada's Top 20 Metro Areas	20	19	19	19	16	11	2	1
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. Reported by BC Stats.

Migration and Immigration

Greater Victoria is consistently able to attract immigrants from all regions of the country and the world.

Within the province, Greater Victoria (Capital Regional District) ranks in the top five regional districts for net migration. The primary source of migrants to the area is from other provinces, followed by international immigrants and finally those from other parts of BC.

Net Migration Index, 1998/99=100

Migration is driven by search for greater opportunities or lifestyle factors such as climate or amenities. International immigration is also a critical source of skilled and unskilled workers to address shortages in the local labour market.

Net Migration	2001~02	2002~03	2003~04	2004~05	2005~06	2006~07	Change 05/06 to 06/07
BC	25,731	28,117	38,095	46,062	49,048	48,456	-1%
Greater Victoria	2,170	2,146	2,257	3,095	2,457	3,537	44%
Metro Vancouver	26,593	22,174	24,378	31,557	33,620	31,493	-6%
Source: Source Statistics Canada, Prepared by BC Stats. Note that Greater Victoria data is for the Capital Regional District, which includes the Gulf Islands.

Educational Attainment

Fully two-thirds of the Greater Victoria population aged 25 to 64 has some form of post-secondary accreditation, which may include a university degree, a college or university certificate or diploma, or a trades or apprenticeship certificate.

This is significantly higher than the BC rate of 62% and ranks Greater Victoria 4^th among Canada's top 20 metropolitan areas, ahead of Metro Vancouver. There is a good mix of accreditations in Greater Victoria, as 12% of the population have apprenticeship or trades training, 26% a certificate or diploma, and 29% a degree.

University Enrollments

University enrolments in BC increased 28% between 2002/03 and 2006/07, while full-time enrollments at the University of Victoria (UVic) increased by 10% over the same period (data from Royal Roads University is not available before the 2005/06 academic year, so a combined regional growth rate cannot be calculated over the four-year period).

Comparing year-over-year changes in enrollment for 2005/06 and 2006/07, the change in enrolments in Greater Victoria is similar to that in BC while FTE enrollment at UVic increased by 3%.

Full-time equivalent (FTE) spaces show changes in the region's educational capacity.

Post-Secondary Enrollments	2002/03	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	Change 2005/06-2006/07
BC	82,962	85,503	90,726	108,222	105,873	-2.2%
Greater Victoria*	18,036	18,415	18,320	23,238	22,839	-1.7%
Greater Victoria Share of BC	21.7%	21.5%	20.2%	21.5%	21.6%	0.1 pp
University of Victoria FTEs	13,145	13,500	13,584	14,005	14,442	3.1%
*Includes University of Victoria and starting in 2005/06, Royal Roads University. Source: University of Victoria Institutional Planning and Analysis, Statistics Canada, BC HEAD dataset

Post-Secondary Credentials Awarded

The three main post-secondary institutions in Greater Victoria - the University of Victoria, Royal Roads University and Camosun College - are continuing to increase the number of graduates each year. The combined number of degree, certificate and diploma graduates in 2007/08 increased by 4.8% over the previous year.

The University of Victoria reports a 42% retention rate in the area for graduates based on a survey two years after graduation. Given that only 30% of graduates are originally from Greater Victoria, this represents a net gain to the region's skilled labour force.

The number of credentials awarded by local post-secondary institutions provides a measure of growth in human capital and skilled labour.

Note that annual data from each institution is available starting in 2005/06, so the upward trend is not as dramatic as shown in the chart.

Credentials Awarded	2001/02	2002/03	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	Change 06/07 to 07/08
Undergraduate Degrees	3,111	3,110	3,215	3,498	3,631	3,679	4,040	9.8%
Graduate Degrees**	495	528	618	1,585	2,042	2,153	1,959	-9.0%
Certificates and Diplomas*	398	441	375	343	1,762	1,763	1,961	11.2%
Total	4,004	4,079	4,208	5,426	7,435	7,595	7,960	4.8%
Source: University of Victoria Institutional Research and Planning, Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, BC, BC Higher Education Accountability Data Set * Does not include data from Camosun College prior to 2005/06 ** Does not include data from Royal Roads University prior to 2004/05

Secondary School Outcomes

Grade 12 graduation rates in Greater Victoria are on par with the provincial rate and these students are pursuing further education at rates comparable to the provincial average.

Six-year completion rates have dropped in the past three years both in Greater Victoria and the province as a whole. In general, Greater Victoria has lower rates of completion than BC as a whole.

Six-Year Completion Rate for Secondary School

Secondary school graduation and transitions to post-secondary education are both inputs into a skilled labour force.

The six-year completion rate measures the share of students entering grade 8 who graduate within 6 years.

The five-year transition rate shows the share of high school graduates who enter a BC post-secondary institution within 5 years of graduation. For graduates after 2002/03, it shows the percentage who had gone on to post-secondary studies by 2008. Data is not available on students going to post-secondary institutions outside of BC.

		2002/03	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
BC	Graduates	44,326	42,310	43,749	44,927	42,768	43,723
	6-Year Completion Rate	n/a	80%	80%	80%	80%	78%
	5-Year Transition Rate	72.0%	69.7%	65.3%	61.0%	50.8%
Greater Victoria*	Graduates	2,758	2,793	2,972	3,031	2,858	2,820
	6-Year Completion Rate	n/a	75%	73%	74%	75%	71%
	5-Year Transition Rate	69.5%	66.2%	62.7%	57.7%	44.5%
Source: BC Ministry of Education, School District Reports, Graduation Reports and Transition Project. *Includes School Districts 61 (Greater Victoria), 62 (Sooke) and 63 (Saanich).

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