Construction and Major Projects
Major Projects Construction
Greater Victoria had just one construction start in the fourth quarter of 2008, valued at $36 million. The fourth quarter also saw construction completed on the University of Victoria's Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Building.
The value of newly started construction projects fell by 42% from 2007 to 2008 and there was a notable decline from the first half of 2008 to the second half. Provincial starts similarly declined 31% year over year.
The value of completed projects in Greater Victoria also fell from 2007 to 2008, by 25%. This is less related to the state of the economy than to the timing of projects started in the past.
The Major Projects Inventory measures construction activity in the province. It includes all development projects valued at over $15 million in BC ($20 million in Greater Vancouver)
Construction activity is closely linked to the economic cycle.
|
Construction Status ($ millions) |
Q4-07 |
2007 |
Q1-08 |
Q2-08 |
Q3-08 |
Q4-08 |
2008 |
Change 2007 to 2008 |
|
Starting BC |
4,773 |
13,061 |
3,426 |
1,320 |
2,371 |
1,868 |
8,985 |
-31% |
|
Greater Victoria |
74 |
963 |
182 |
288 |
50 |
36 |
556 |
-42% |
|
Completing BC |
1,704 |
4,952 |
1,153 |
1,903 |
1,465 |
1,294 |
5,815 |
17% |
|
Greater Victoria |
182 |
364 |
62 |
98 |
46 |
67 |
273 |
-25% |
| Source: Ministry of Small Business, Technology and Economic Development | ||||||||
Value of Building Permits
Total building permit values in Greater Victoria declined between 2007 and 2008. This is consistent with the trend in the rest of the province.
The trend over the past decade in Greater Victoria has been for steady growth in values each year of 10-25%. This is marginally higher than both Metro Vancouver and BC as a whole. The gap in growth rates has narrowed since 2002.
Total building permit values measure construction activity and are a leading indicator of the economic cycle.
Building permits tend to move with the economy. During periods of economic growth they rise, while during slowdowns they fall.
|
Total Building Permit Values ($millions) |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
Average Annual Growth, 2002-2008 |
|
BC |
5,659 |
6,394 |
7,939 |
10,191 |
11,542 |
12,545 |
10,558 |
12% |
|
Greater Victoria |
448 |
568 |
537 |
720 |
776 |
914 |
838 |
14% |
|
Metro Vancouver |
3,585 |
3,677 |
4,843 |
5,651 |
6,617 |
7,011 |
5,579 |
11% |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Prepared by BC Stats | ||||||||
Housing Starts
Housing starts in Greater Victoria declined sharply in 2008 compared to 2007, falling 26%. BC and Metro Vancouver also experienced declines in year-over-year starts, although not as dramatic.
The drop in housing starts is largely due to a slowdown in the second half of 2008 that is expected to continue into 2009.
Overall, housing starts in Greater Victoria are below the five-year average but above both the 10 and 15-year averages.
Housing Starts Index, 1998=100
Housing starts are a leading economic indicator. Declines in housing starts suggest that economic activity is beginning to slow while increases indicate that economic activity is growing.
To identify trends monthly and quarterly data should be compared to both the previous period and the same period of the previous year.
|
Housing Starts |
2007 |
Q1-08 |
Q2-08 |
Q3-08 |
Q4-08 |
2008 |
Change 2007-2008 |
|
BC |
39,195 |
8,289 |
8,815 |
8,379 |
5,341 |
34,321 |
-12% |
|
Greater Victoria |
2,579 |
391 |
823 |
475 |
209 |
1,905 |
-26% |
|
Metro Vancouver |
20,736 |
5,131 |
5,045 |
5,484 |
3,925 |
19,591 |
-6% |
|
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Note: Quarterly reported totals are preliminary and adjusted so annual totals may not equal the sum of quarters. |
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